# Driver-Tree Prototype (real supercycle data)

Static prototypes of the markets driver tree, built from the historical data in
`et_supercycles/*/updates/` (16 supercycles, ~400 update files, data through
**2026-07-13**). Visual style follows the Emerging Trajectories guide.

## Pages

| File | What it shows |
|---|---|
| `index.html` | High-level trends: per-supercycle cards with normalized score, latest delta, sparkline over the update history, and cross-cutting themes that move several trees at once. Named `index.html` so the folder works directly as a GitHub Pages site root. |
| `drivertree.html` | Two layers: supercycle → its seven PMESTLE category registries. |
| `drivertree2.html` | Three layers: supercycle → load-bearing signposts → literal dated events from the update files. |
| `drivertree3.html` | The event ladder plus an **impact** column (0 non-event / +1 local / +2 regional / +3 global) at every level. |
| `data.js` | The dataset (hand-synthesized from the update histories). |
| `common.js`, `style.css` | Shared rendering + styles. |

## Scale adjustment (−2…+2, not −3…+3)

The earlier hypothetical prototypes used a −3…+3 severity scale. The real
trackers score signposts **−2 (strongly limiting the supercycle) … +2 (strongly
strengthening)**, so these pages use the native −2…+2 scale throughout:

- **Signposts and events** map 1:1 — scores are taken directly from the registries.
- **Supercycle and PMESTLE-category rows** are derived: `registry total ÷ ± range × 2`,
  shown to one decimal (e.g. AI Revolution +17/±98 → **+0.3**; its Technology
  subtotal +15/±16 → **+1.9**). The raw `total/range` is shown as a tag on each row.
- **Direction semantics are native**: blue = strengthening the supercycle thesis,
  pink = limiting it. For decline-framed trackers (e.g. *Indonesia Economy*,
  *Western Governance Decline*) a **positive** score means the (bearish) thesis is
  strengthening — same as in the source files.

## Impact scores (prototype 3 / home)

Assigned from each tracker's stated scope of market transmission:
**Global (+3)**: AI Revolution, Asset Bubbles, Deglobalization & Militarization.
**Regional (+2)**: Critical Minerals, Western Governance Decline, US Military
Modernization, Japan Militarization, China Economic Growth, China Biotech,
Consumerization of Biotech, Asian Stock Markets, Ukraine War.
**Local (+1)**: Humanoid Robots (few public pure-plays), Turkey, Indonesia, Cuba.
Events carry their own impact (e.g. the Hormuz 20% toll = +3; a KOSPI circuit
breaker = +2; an İmamoğlu court date = +1).

## Data caveats

- Several trackers re-baselined their frameworks mid-history (AI on 06-17,
  Deglobalization on 05-30, China Growth on 07-11, Governance on 05-10). Sparkline
  series use the comparable era only; breaks are noted on the cards.
- Two trackers (Asian Stock Markets, Turkey) are days old — two data points each.
- `asset_bubble` reports a gross composite without a published ± range; it is
  normalized against ±88 (44 posts × 2). Negative = bubble-fragility conditions.
- `china_economic_growth` publishes subtotal sums without a range; normalized
  against signpost count × 2.
- Signposts (3–4 per supercycle) and events (1–2 per signpost) are a curated
  subset of much larger registries (up to 87 signposts each) — chosen for
  load-bearing weight in the latest updates, not exhaustiveness.